A powerful storm system will approach the Middle Atlantic states from late Monday through early Wednesday. It looks as though the storm will come in two “waves,” the first of which may produce a mixture of sleet, snow, and freezing rain in the Baltimore/Annapolis area. As the center of low pressure with the second system intensifies and moves to our north and west, milder air will gradually erode the cold air “damming” over the coastal plan east of the Appalachian Mountains. This will result in freezing rain changing to rain over most locations around the bay on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. In addition, milder air moving over the snowpack north of Annapolis and Easton will likely result in areas of dense fog on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Much colder air will push through the area for Thursday and Friday with highs only in the 30s and low temperatures in the lower 20s. By late Friday into Saturday, a coastal storm may move north into our area and bring a chance of rain and/or snow. For more information, “like” the new Chesapeake Bay Weather Facebook page or visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: January 30 through February 5
January 30th, 2011Weather Update: Snow falling this morning; warnings & advisories in effect
January 26th, 2011438 AM EST – I’ve been posting this morning on my Chesapeake Bay Weather Facebook page about the snow. This area of snow is accumulating, but is not part of the main weather feature that will impact central Maryland with accumulating snow later today/tonight. In fact, a change to sleet or even rain may occur as warmer air moves north ahead of the main low that will develop into a nor’easter. An inch or so of snow and ice may fall west of the Chesapeake Bay, north of Annapolis, this morning. During the early afternoon there may be a break in the action as one piece of energy moves to our north/east and we await the main storm. Mixed precipitation later this afternoon will change to all snow for the evening. The National Weather Service has dropped the Winter Storm Watch for Anne Arundel County as it only expects 3-5 inches to fall tonight. Instead, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued except for a warning across northern Maryland, areas north and west of Baltimore and Washington, and the northern Delmarva. This may change once the storm develops today and new data is analyzed. For now we can expect a couple of hours of snow/mix. Follow my Facebook page for up-to-the-minute details on the impending winter weather event. For additional information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: January 23 through January 29
January 23rd, 2011The week will begin with plenty of sunshine but with very cold temperatures. Lows around 10 degrees will be recorded on Sunday and Monday mornings with highs struggling to break out of the upper 20s. As high pressure retreats, a southerly flow will enable temperatures to climb into the 40s on Tuesday. Light precipitation from a coastal low will impact the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay on Wednesday with light snow and sleet with minor accumulations. By Wednesday evening, a stronger area of low pressure will advance northeastward toward the Middle Atlantic states with heavy rain and snow. Initially, rain will fall over the Baltimore/Washington area but then quickly change to heavy snow during the evening hours. An accumulation of 3 to 6 inches can be expected along the western shore of the bay north of Annapolis. The dynamics of the system will create thunder and lightning in some areas as the snow falls with snowfall rates exceeding 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. The key to snowfall in central Maryland will be the timing of the transition from rain to sleet to snow. The duration of this storm will be rather short and shortly after midnight the precipitation will come to an end from southwest to northeast. Seasonably cold weather can be expected behind the storm with a chance for snow showers later in the week. Consequently, isolated locations may receive higher snowfall totals. For more information “like” the Chesapeake Bay Weather Facebook page or visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: January 16 through January 22
January 16th, 2011Sunday’s weather will feature clouds and sun along with seasonably cold temperatures as highs reach the middle 30s. Meanwhile, high pressure overhead will move into New England on Monday. This seems insignificant, but will actually allow a cold flow of air to become wedged east of the mountains and enable snow, sleet, and freezing rain to fall Monday night and early Tuesday morning as low pressure approaches the region. Eventually, the cold layer of air will be eroded and all precipitation will change to rain on Tuesday. This changeover process will occur more quickly across southern Maryland and the lower Eastern Shore while frozen precipitation may persist into the early afternoon hours across northern Maryland. Maximum temperatures this week will be in the 30s from Sunday to Friday with lows mainly in the low to mid 20s. Unsettled weather returns on Thursday and Friday with a chance of snow, rain, or mixed precipitation depending on the track of the storm which is expected to move northeast along the Middle Atlantic coastline. In the wake of the winter storm we will experience much colder weather next Saturday with lows from 7 to 12 degrees and highs from 22 to 27 degrees. Follow Chesapeake Bay Weather on Facebook or visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com for more information.
Weather Update: Snow continues across central Maryland
January 11th, 2011A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for much of central and northern Maryland. A strong nor’easter is in the development stages as energy from a low in Ohio is transferring to a low recently born off of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Unfortunately for those who love snow, this storm simply formed too late to bring heavy snow to our part of the country. Those living between Philadelphia and Boston will experience a powerful snowstorm with blizzard conditions at times. Overnight we can expect a continuation of light to occasionally moderate snow with a couple of inches accumulating before tapering off to scattered snow showers and flurries after midnight. Winds will increase during the day on Wednesday as the Low intensifies off the Atlantic seaboard and pulls away from our region. Expect gusts from 20 to 30 miles per hour during the day and temperatures in the low to mid 30s under bright sunshine. For more information, join the Chesapeake Bay Weather Facebook community where I post frequent updates or visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: January 9 through January 15
January 9th, 2011The week begins with sunshine and cold temperatures. Lows on Sunday and Monday will range from 19 to 24 and highs will hover around 32 degrees. Meanwhile, low pressure near the Gulf of Mexico transfer out to sea and be replaced by a new surface low that will move up the Atlantic seaboard on Tuesday. This low will phase with energy from a secondary low over western Pennsylvania to bring heavy snow from New Jersey to Massachusetts; however, across Maryland the snow will be much lighter. In particular, the Pennsylvania low will move to our north and bring a “dry slot” across the Chesapeake area, effectively cutting off our snow. Nonetheless, a few inches of snow appear likely in the Baltimore area, with lesser amounts on the Eastern Shore as precipitation may change to sleet and rain near the coast. Once the storm intensifies and pulls away from our area, cold arctic high pressure will move in from the northwest. The period Wednesday through Saturday will feature mostly sunny and cold conditions with lows in the 10s and highs around 30 each day. The long-term outlook calls for mild weather to return during the week of January 16 with average or above-average temperatures and minimal opportunities for winter weather. For more information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: January 2 through January 8
January 2nd, 2011After a cloudy, damp, showery day on Sunday, the first full week of January will feature relatively calm weather conditions with sunny, crisp days and cold star-lit nights. Rain showers and mild temperatures will be the rule for Sunday with afternoon readings in the 50s. Temperatures will fall quickly into the mid 20s by Monday morning as a frontal system moves across the bay region. On Monday, bright sunshine returns although temperatures will only reach the middle 30s. From Tuesday to Thursday we will see a continuation of sunny days with lows mainly in the 20s and highs in the 30s with the exception of some lower 40s across southern Maryland. A small area of low pressure will move eastward across the Appalachians on Friday and Saturday and a band of light snow is expected to develop east of the mountains. Although temperatures will be cold enough to support all frozen precipitation, less than one inch of accumulation can be expected from this system and most areas in central Maryland will only see scattered snow showers. As the low pulls away to our northeast, a brisk northwest wind will reinforce the cold air over the Middle Atlantic states. By next Saturday sunshine will return with lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s and highs barely reaching the freezing point. The long-term outlook calls for frigid conditions next week along with at least one opportunity for accumulating snow. For more information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weekly Weather Outlook: December 26 through January 1
December 26th, 2010An historic snowstorm will barely graze central Maryland today with light snow showers, perhaps accumulating up to an inch by Monday morning. More importantly, we can expect winds tonight and Monday to occasionally gust from 30 to 50 miles per hour. On the lower Eastern Shore, strong winds will be accompanied by heavy snow accumulating from one to two feet at some locations including Ocean City. Had this storm strengthened sooner, heavy snow would have fallen on the western shore of the Chesapeake. As we move through the week sunny and seasonably cool weather will be the main weather feature with lows in the 20s and highs in the low 40s on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Meanwhile, low pressure along a frontal system will move from west to east across the country on Friday. Mild air ahead of this system will surge northward into the Middle Atlantic region on Saturday and Sunday so that highs each day will reach the low to middle 50s. The trade-off will be that clouds and showers will come along with the warmer temperatures. The long-term outlook calls for a January thaw during the first week of the new year followed by a return to colder and stormier weather during the second and third weeks of the month. For more information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weather Update: Christmas snow showers followed by a classic nor’easter
December 25th, 2010The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for central and eastern Maryland for Sunday. Here is the latest forecast discussion from the NWS. Low pressure will develop and deepen off of Cape Hatteras, NC later tonight and it now appears that the low will move close enough to the coast to bring at least a moderate snowfall (4-6″) with the potential for greater amounts depending on the ultimate track and intensity of the storm. A band of light snow showers will move from west to east across the bay this morning and early afternoon, but only a dusting of snow can be expected. Under a mostly cloudy sky, temperatures will struggle to reach 35 degrees today. For those expecting to travel tonight, no inclement weather is expected before midnight. As the low develops overnight, snow will spread from south to north across the region and become steadier and heavier during the morning hours on Sunday. Moderate to occasionally heavy snow can be expected through Sunday evening. The only area of the state expected to escape this storm is western Maryland where only snow showers are anticipated. More updates will be posted as needed. For more information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.
Weather Update: Weekend snowstorm hit or miss?
December 24th, 2010For the past five days we have monitored the back-and-forth computer forecast models which have predicted everything from a blockbuster snowstorm of historic proportions to a storm that is too far off the Atlantic coastline to bring any snow to Maryland. For several days, the models trended toward a snowier solution, but in the past forty-eight hours they have shifted the storm to the east. You may have noticed that the National Weather Service lowered its snowfall potential in their recent forecasts. Even this morning’s computer model runs continued to indicate a storm out to sea, but this afternoon the plot is thickening as new information beings to suggest that a coastal storm may indeed bring some snow to central and eastern Maryland. The computer data is so suspect and unpredictable at this point that we will need to wait until Christmas morning to get a better idea of the intensity and the track of this potential nor’easter. You may remember the famous 2000 nor’easter which hit Maryland with heavy snowfall and strong winds, a storm that was expected to form off the North Carolina coast and move out to sea. Viewers who watched the eleven o’clock news that night went to sleep anticipating a cold but sunny morning, but when they woke up there were winter storm warnings for heavy snow across the region (that storm is in the top five of my all-time favorite Maryland snowstorms.) In any event, there is the potential for snow on Sunday and Monday over Washington and Baltimore with a better chance of accumulating snow on the Delmarva peninsula. More updates will be posted as warranted. For more information visit www.chesapeakebayweather.com.